Bitcoin Gains Momentum, But Lacks Real Demand
Bitcoin is once again gaining traction, currently trading above $115,000 after a notable recovery. This uptick is largely driven by market anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting. While risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have reacted positively to the prospect of looser monetary policy, the broader market environment remains volatile. The challenge for Bitcoin now is to sustain these elevated price levels as bulls aim for further upward movement.
Key Points
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142, showing significant recovery.
- Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have driven risk assets higher.
- Analysts indicate Bitcoin's 30-day momentum is in the Impulse Cooling Zone, suggesting short-term weakness.
- Price increases are influenced by weak supply and localized buying, with low market liquidity.
- Real demand typically arises at clear discounts in the market, rather than at cycle highs.
In-Depth Analysis
At present, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum indicates a softening of short-term dynamics, yet the overall upward trend remains intact. Top analyst Axel Adler notes that the current market situation resembles a phase of consolidation rather than a structural reversal. Despite the momentum decline, Bitcoin remains above $115,000, facing significant market tests in the coming days as investors assess macroeconomic risks.In a market characterized by low liquidity, prices can still inch upwards, but they also face the risk of rapid declines. Any increase in selling pressure could quickly overwhelm shallow order books, leading to substantial price swings. Adler emphasizes that true demand often emerges when prices are significantly discounted, and in a mature bull phase, buyers are typically hesitant to chase peaks.