As Solana (SOL) breaks through the $225 threshold, Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan forecasts a potential bullish rally in Q4 if the altcoin follows the successful formula of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Key Points
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted that the recipe for strong returns over the past 18 months has been: inflows + corporate purchases = significant returns.
- Multiple issuers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck, have applied to launch spot SOL exchange-traded products (ETPs), expected to be approved in Q4.
- Forward Industries has secured $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoins to establish a publicly traded company focused on SOL, boosting SOL purchases and returns.
- Solana, as an Ethereum competitor, supports stablecoins and decentralized finance applications while undergoing a major technical upgrade to enhance its speed.
- With a market capitalization of around $120.8 billion, Solana is significantly smaller than BTC and ETH, making it more susceptible to price impacts from new inflows.
In-Depth Analysis
In a recent memo to clients, Hougan elaborated on the current market conditions and emphasized the importance of supply and demand dynamics. He indicated that BTC's performance since January 2024 was based on this principle, and ETH found a similar successful pattern in April 2025. According to Hougan, the current market conditions are favorable for Solana's bull run, particularly with the progression of multiple ETP applications and anticipated corporate inflows.The establishment of Forward Industries is a notable development, as the company plans to generate excess returns by purchasing and staking SOL. Hougan pointed out that the appointment of Kyle Samani as chairman could help elevate investor interest in Solana, given his influence in the cryptocurrency space.
Market Impact
Hougan's analysis suggests that Solana's relatively small market capitalization in the broader cryptocurrency market means that even modest inflows can significantly affect its price. Compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana's market cap is only one-twentieth of BTC, providing a favorable opportunity for new capital. While Solana's annual inflation rate is 4.3%, higher than BTC and ETH, it does not overshadow the market's expectations for its potential.Investment Suggestion
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