In recent years, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated remarkable resilience as an asset, particularly when compared to companies that have integrated it into their financial strategies. However, recent signs indicate a widening gap between the two. According to the latest data, stocks of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTCs) have plummeted in the last 10 weeks, losing between 50% and 80% of their value. This divergence has resulted in an unusual "1:4 cycle ratio".
Key Points
- Bitcoin prices have maintained strong momentum over the past 18 months, consistently hitting new highs.
- BTCTCs have seen significant stock price declines, showing inconsistencies with the market.
- Japanese firm MetaPlanet has experienced multiple minor corrections, illustrating a lack of synchronization with Bitcoin prices.
- Most BTCTC declines are due to company-specific factors rather than direct Bitcoin volatility.
- Currently, Bitcoin is in a correction phase, with many BTCTCs also facing downward trends.
In-Depth Analysis
Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin's price has undergone a sustained bull market, prompting numerous companies to adopt Bitcoin as part of their financial reserves. This strategy, known as the Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, has created a close relationship between BTCTCs and the Bitcoin market. However, according to crypto commentator Mark Moss, BTCTCs have seen significant stock price declines in recent weeks, establishing a "1:4" cycle behavior pattern, indicating that these companies experience price fluctuations at a rate much higher than Bitcoin's.MetaPlanet serves as a prime case study, as its stock has seen 12 distinct drawdowns over the past 18 months, averaging a 32.4% decline. Most of these drawdowns are linked to internal company decisions (such as fundraising activities, warrant exercises, etc.) rather than direct impacts from the Bitcoin market. Although 41.7% of the drawdowns coincide with Bitcoin's volatility, the majority stem from company-specific factors.